Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $636,884$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.82 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{654,543.3}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 123.1)}}\) (asimptote \(654,543.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $14,779$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(322 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,968.1}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 124.1)}}\) (asimptote \(17,968.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $60,901$ on 2020-09-05

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,275$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(140 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,279.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 137.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,279.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.56 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 129.8)}}\) (asimptote \(51.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $622$ on 2020-09-05

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,387$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(67.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,273.5}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 68.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,273.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $60$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(13.6 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58.9}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 58.3)}}\) (asimptote \(58.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $0$ on 2020-09-05

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,972$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(358 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,787.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 115.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,787.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(10.1 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{92.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 78.5)}}\) (asimptote \(92.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $476$ on 2020-09-05

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $99,712$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,589.1}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 96.4)}}\) (asimptote \(99,589.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,511$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(490 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,593.5}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 99.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,593.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,993$ on 2020-09-05

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,178$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,956.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 89.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,956.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $259$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(32.1 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{269.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 94.6)}}\) (asimptote \(269.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $499$ on 2020-09-05

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,094$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(17.1 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,741.5}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 165.0)}}\) (asimptote \(37,741.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $272$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{523.5}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 155.5)}}\) (asimptote \(523.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,797$ on 2020-09-05

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $70,160$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(737 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.3\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,329$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(18.9 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.2\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,902$ on 2020-09-05

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Ghana recovered 91%
Mauritania recovered 89%
Cote d'Ivoire recovered 83%
Egypt recovered 69%
South Africa recovered 65%
Nigeria recovered 52%
Malawi recovered 19%

Ghana⮸

Population $31,072,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $44,777$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(3.03 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51,644.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 112.4)}}\) (asimptote \(51,644.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $283$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(14.8 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{360.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 126.4)}}\) (asimptote \(360.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $801$ on 2020-09-05

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,134$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(613 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,777.7}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 89.9)}}\) (asimptote \(6,777.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $160$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(22.6 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{156.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 76.8)}}\) (asimptote \(156.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $316$ on 2020-09-05

Cote d'Ivoire⮸

Population $26,378,274$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $18,472$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,595.4}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 98.0)}}\) (asimptote \(18,595.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $119$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(17.9 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 84.1)}}\) (asimptote \(127.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,030$ on 2020-09-05

Nigeria⮸

Population $206,139,589$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $54,905$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(5.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57,973.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 95.1)}}\) (asimptote \(57,973.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,054$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(190 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,075.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 67.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,075.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,929$ on 2020-09-05